Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
