Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
